Friday, April 1, 2011

The Paradox of Choice

I have a job offer that expires Wednesday of next week. It's from the Arch Nemesis company, and is a partial step up from my current position. I have three different awesome opportunities, and am stuck, partially-unable to choose.

In "The Paradox of Choice: Why Less is More," Barry Schwartz explains why consumers, always-enamored by choice and options, freeze when faced with too many possible selections. I, for example, dither for many minutes when attempting to choose the "perfect" wine flight at a local wine bar. When I get my selection, I fret about whether it was worth the money, or whether I can really differentiate this Pinot Noir from that Pinot Noir that's $4 cheaper. However, when faced with the selection of "red or white?" at a restaurant, I can easily make a decision based on my mood for the day.


(4 hours later)

This morning, my manager informed that I had 60 minutes to decide on the next two years of my life. He needed to know in the next hour whether I wanted to accept the assignment. I asked a few mentors, got some mixed feedback, and decided to decline the opportunity.

I told my manager that I didn't see any upside in the Asia assignment, aside from building a strong relationship with a team that is (essentially) declining in our overall corporation, and getting a paid vacation for 1.5 years. The job would be a job that I'd done before, with worse hours, a language barrier, and a management team 7,000 miles away. If the project suddenly fell out of fashion, I'd be stuck with no sponsor for the remainder of the assignment, and possibly no job when I returned. If it succeeds, I'll reinforce the relationships I already have.

I've eliminated one choice, and now feel immediate buyer's remorse. I've declined the road less traveled. I've turned away from this once (or twice) in a lifetime opportunity. Why? Because staying is the safe thing to do? Hopefully because I think staying is the better thing long-term. I think I know how to turn my current assignment into the next major initiative and product in our organization. I think.

I'm suffering. To quote the Wikipedia article on Missed Opportunities:
Schwartz finds that when people are faced with having to choose one option out of many desirable choices, they will begin to consider hypothetical trade-offs. Their options are evaluated in terms of missed opportunities instead of the opportunity's potential. Schwartz maintains that one of the downsides of making trade-offs is it alters how we feel about the decisions we face; afterwards, it affects the level of satisfaction we experience from our decision. While psychologists have known for years about the harmful effects of negative emotion on decision making, Schwartz points to recent evidence showing how positive emotion has the opposite effect: in general, subjects are inclined to consider more possibilities when they are feeling happy.
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paradox_of_Choice:_Why_More_Is_Less

If only I'd read that before lunch, huh?

8 comments:

  1. Whoa, 60 minutes to decide! No pressure! :S Could you still change your mind and accept the opportunity? I think I would have chosen the same way as you. Although you are more informed than I am on your job, given how you feel, I think I would choose the more conservative choice and decline the assignment.

    I am so prone to spending a long time picking out the perfect wine, shirt, and everything else, like you lol. Then I will have little arguments with myself about whether a particular decision was right and whether the alternatives would have been better >.<

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  2. I can't. I found out after lunch that they're offering it to someone else. If he declines, then it may come back to me. If it does, we'll negotiate it as a six-month assignment. That, of course, assumes I can figure out how to stay at the company and on good terms after my boss delivers this "competing offer" news.

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  3. I read The Paradox of Choice. It was a great book! It helped me understand why, after agonizing over a difficult decision and making what I believe to be a thoughtful, considered choice, I'm often tortured by the "what ifs". Every time I buy a car, within a few days I'm almost always thinking about what options I could have had, or a that a different car that I considered might have been better, instead of just enjoying the nice vehicle I acquired. The guy is spot on - regrets over trade offs can really sap the pleasure out of our life.

    Oh, and I think you made the right choice particularly if you want to stay with your current company. Being 7,000 miles away from the main office is likely having your neck stretched out on the guillotine.

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  4. I totally identify with your emotions regarding choice, and have heard of / intended to read Paradox of Choice for a bit, but haven't gotten around to it. What a tough decision! Sounds like you made the right one...but wow...tough.

    It would be quite an experience living over there for 1.5 of the ~84 years of your life. That's a pretty amazing adventure.

    Steve

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  5. @ControllerOne: I'm still playing around with all the what-if scenarios. I still regret my choice, but think it's better, longer-term. Short term, it would've been cool, but pretty high risk. I guess we'll see what happens in a year or so, when the rest of the team is assembled, and is shipped off to Asia.

    @Planetx: I know. My hope is that this doesn't turn into one of those decisions that I'll regret at year 83 of my 84 year life.

    The upsides of going over there: I'd reinforce my stellar reputation within the overall division, I might get a nice cash award if things go well, and just live an adventure for 18 months.


    I'm still conflicted on the decision, but as it is, need to figure out (by middle of next week!) how to leverage the job offer I have outside the company without burning any bridges.

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  6. That's tough... It wouldn't be easy being in your shoes.
    What are you thinking about the job offer of your arch nemesis?

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  7. Oh no - I look through a wine list, eliminate the ones which look over-priced or which I know I don't like and then make a decision. Once I'm drinking it the decision is either vindicated or I go it wrong. That much will be obvious by how the wine drinks.

    There is no going back - once the bottle has been opened that's it.

    Beer is what you should have - draught beer where you can ask for a taste before you commit yourself.

    You had good reasons not to go with the Asia assignment but as far as I know you have no good reasons not to change company. That sounds like the sort of thing you should commit yourself to.

    Why don't you try making pros and cons lists for the remaining options before you are faced with the deadlines? Usually that process makes it clear which you really want to go for.

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  8. @Nik: It's kind of a half-step up. Frankly, it's not worth it, but it's invaluable as a negotiating tool.

    @Micky: You're a "Satisficer," and I'm a "Maximizer." You know how to find what will make you happy, enjoy it, and move on. :-)

    See my latest post.

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